According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US 30-year Treasury note yield has officially risen above 5%, while the 10-year note yield increased by another 11 basis points, signaling bond markets are pricing in higher inflation and ruling out recession or trade deals (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter, May 19, 2025). This sharp move in yields increases the likelihood of 8% mortgage rates if no policy intervention occurs, tightening financial conditions and influencing investor behavior. Historically, rising yields and higher borrowing costs have led to capital outflows from risk assets like equities, but often drive increased interest in alternative assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies as investors seek hedges against inflation and fiat debasement. Crypto traders should monitor Treasury yields closely, as further increases may act as a catalyst for digital asset volatility and inflows.

According to Crypto Rover, the US 10-year Treasury yield has surpassed 4.5%, while both the 20-year and 30-year yields have reached 5% (source: Crypto Rover on Twitter, May 19, 2025). This significant rise in long-term yields signals increased risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, which historically pressures risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Elevated yields can attract capital away from crypto markets, leading to potential short-term volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices as investors seek higher returns in US bonds. Crypto traders should closely monitor further yield movements for signs of liquidity shifts that could impact major digital asset prices.